This page give a comparison of how our 2010 season predictions compare with those of some "experts.
We compared our results in 3 different ways:
1. How many games off our predictions were on each team on average (sum of absolute value of team wins - predicted wins) / 30
2. How many places our prediction for each team was off
3. How many of the teams our model predicted to make the post-season actually made the post-season
On predicted standings (uploaded in April, 2010) can be found here.
The pages being compared with can be found at: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ys-mlbdivisionpredict040310 and http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/baseball/mlb/03/29/expert.picks/index.html (We also compared with the hardcopy Sports Illustrated 4/5/2010 edition)
1. We compare our results with those of Sports Illustrated 4/5/2010 and with 3 Yahoo experts (Tim Brown, Steve Henson and Jeff Passan) as these all provided no only the place each team should end up in, but also number of wins for each team.
Off per team
So here, Steve Henson did best. Bukiet was in second 0.1 game/team back
2. Again we can compare with the experts listed above since the same experts gave expected standings
Again, we are second best, with Henson best by one place.
3. With respect to making the post-season, we can compare with those listed above plus Sports Illustrated's "experts" posted their predictions at http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/baseball/mlb/03/29/expert.picks/index.html. Out of the 8 teams that made the playoffs, the number each expert picked is given in the Table below:
|Expert||Number of Playoff Teams Correct|
Comment: Bukiet tied for first with Albert Chen, but we note that the Braves just made the playoffs on the final day so we could easily have had 5 rather than 6 correct. However, many other "contestants" also would have done worse had the Braves not made the playoffs.
All in all, once again Bukiet's picks were competitive with the so-called experts.