Prof. Bukiet's

Post-Season Probabilities 2007

(also check out the MVP and Cy Young Award page)

go to Prof. Bukiet's baseball page

go to egrandslam.com

Updated - Tuesday October 30

World Series Probabilities

Tuesday October 30

We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress. (Red Sox have home field advantage).

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
Red Sox Beckett 1 Schilling 1 Matsuzaka 1 Lester 1
Rockies Francis 0 Jimenez 0 Fogg 0 Cook 0

 

(Red Sox up 4-0) Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
Red Sox 1 0 0 0 1
Rockies 0 0 0 0 0

 

 

World Series Probabilities

Friday October 26

We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress. (Red Sox have home field advantage).

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter (Pwin)
Red Sox Beckett 1 Schilling 1 Matsuzaka .529 Lester .378 Beckett .563 Schilling .616 Matsuzaka .652
Rockies Francis 0 Jimenez 0 Fogg .471 Cook .622 Francis .437 Jimenez .384 Fogg .348

 

(Red Sox up 2-0) Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
Red Sox 0.200 0.285 .238 0.148 0.872
Rockies 0 0 0.049 0.079 0.128

 

World Series Probabilities

Thursday October 25

We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress. (Red Sox have home field advantage).

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter (Pwin)
Red Sox Beckett 1 Schilling .616 Matsuzaka .529 Lester .378 Beckett .563 Schilling .616 Matsuzaka .652
Rockies Francis 0 Jimenez .384 Fogg .471 Cook .622 Francis .437 Jimenez .384 Fogg .348

 

(Red Sox up 1-0) Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
Red Sox 0.123 0.219 .235 0.187 0.764
Rockies 0 0.049 0.087 0.100 0.236

 

World Series Probabilities

Tuesday October 23

We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress. (Red Sox have home field advantage).

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter (Pwin)
Red Sox Beckett .687 Schilling .616 Matsuzaka .529 Lester .378 Beckett .563 Schilling .616 Matsuzaka .652
Rockies Francis .313 Jimenez .384 Fogg .471 Cook .622 Francis .437 Jimenez .384 Fogg .348

 

  Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
Red Sox 0.085 0.172 .214 0.198 0.668
Rockies 0.035 0.085 0.106 0.105 0.332

 

League Championship Probabilities and Predictions

Tuesday October 23

We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter (Pwin)
Indians Sabathia 0 Carmona 1 Westbrook 1 Byrd 1 Sabathia 0 Carmona 0 Westbrook 0
Red Sox Beckett 1 Schilling 0 Matsuzaka 0 Wakefield 0 Beckett 1 Schilling 1 Matsuzaka 1
Rockies Francis 1 Jimenez 1 Fogg 1 Morales 1            
Diamondbacks Webb 0 Davis 0 Hernandez 0 Owings 0            

 

  Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League (Red Sox won 4-3)          
Indians 0 0 0 0 0
Red Sox 0 0 0 1 1
           
National League (Rockies won 4-0)          
Rockies 1       1
Diamondbacks 0       0

 

 

League Championship Probabilities and Predictions

Sunday October 21

We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter (Pwin)
Indians Sabathia 0 Carmona 1 Westbrook 1 Byrd 1 Sabathia 0 Carmona 0 Westbrook .386
Red Sox Beckett 1 Schilling 0 Matsuzaka 0 Wakefield 0 Beckett 1 Schilling 1 Matsuzaka .614
Rockies Francis 1 Jimenez 1 Fogg 1 Morales 1            
Diamondbacks Webb 0 Davis 0 Hernandez 0 Owings 0            

 

  Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League (Series tied 3-3)          
Indians 0 0 0 .386 .386
Red Sox 0 0 0 .614 .614
           
National League (Rockies won 4-0)          
Rockies 1       1
Diamondbacks 0       0

 

League Championship Probabilities and Predictions

Friday October 19

We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter (Pwin)
Indians Sabathia 0 Carmona 1 Westbrook 1 Byrd 1 Sabathia 0 Carmona .450 Westbrook .386
Red Sox Beckett 1 Schilling 0 Matsuzaka 0 Wakefield 0 Beckett 1 Schilling .550 Matsuzaka .614
Rockies Francis 1 Jimenez 1 Fogg 1 Morales 1            
Diamondbacks Webb 0 Davis 0 Hernandez 0 Owings 0            

 

  Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League (Indians up 3-2)          
Indians 0 1 .450 .212 .662
Red Sox 0 0 0 .338 .338
           
National League (Rockies won 4-0)          
Rockies 1       1
Diamondbacks 0       0

 

Wednesday October 17

We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter (Pwin)
Indians Sabathia 0 Carmona 1 Westbrook 1 Byrd 1 Sabathia .521 Carmona .450 Westbrook .386
Red Sox Beckett 1 Schilling 0 Matsuzaka 0 Wakefield 0 Beckett .479 Schilling .550 Matsuzaka .614
Rockies Francis 1 Jimenez 1 Fogg 1 Morales 1            
Diamondbacks Webb 0 Davis 0 Hernandez 0 Owings 0            

 

  Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League (Indians up 3-1)          
Indians 0 .521 .216 .102 .838
Red Sox 0 0 0 .162 .162
           
National League (Rockies won 4-0)          
Rockies 1       1
Diamondbacks 0       0

Tuesday October 16

We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter (Pwin)
Indians Sabathia 0 Carmona 1 Westbrook 1 Byrd .482 Sabathia .521 Carmona .450 Westbrook .386
Red Sox Beckett 1 Schilling 0 Matsuzaka 0 Wakefield .518 Beckett .479 Schilling .550 Matsuzaka .614
Rockies Francis 1 Jimenez 1 Fogg 1 Morales 1            
Diamondbacks Webb 0 Davis 0 Hernandez 0 Owings 0            

 

  Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League (Indians up 2-1)          
Indians 0 .251 .225 .149 .626
Red Sox 0 0 .136 .238 .374
           
National League (Rockies won 4-0)          
Rockies 1       1
Diamondbacks 0       0

Monday October 15

We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter (Pwin)
Indians Sabathia 0 Carmona 1 Westbrook .502 Byrd .482 Sabathia .521 Carmona .450 Westbrook .386
Red Sox Beckett 1 Schilling 0 Matsuzaka .519 Wakefield .518 Beckett .479 Schilling .550 Matsuzaka .614
Rockies Francis 1 Jimenez 1 Fogg 1 Morales .687 Francis .527 Jimenez .630 Fogg .616
Diamondbacks Webb 0 Davis 0 Hernandez 0 Owings .313 Webb .473 Davis .370 Hernandez .384

 

  Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League (Series even 1-1)          
Indians 0 .121 .167 .145 .433
Red Sox 0 .129 .209 .230 .567
           
National League (Rockies up 3-0)          
Rockies .687 .165 .093 .034 .979
Diamondbacks 0 0 1 .021 .021

 

Sunday October 14

We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter (Pwin)
Indians Sabathia 0 Carmona 1 Westbrook .502 Byrd .482 Sabathia .521 Carmona .450 Westbrook .386
Red Sox Beckett 1 Schilling 0 Matsuzaka .519 Wakefield .518 Beckett .479 Schilling .550 Matsuzaka .614
Rockies Francis 1 Jimenez 1 Fogg .688 Morales .687 Francis .527 Jimenez .630 Fogg .616
Diamondbacks Webb 0 Davis 0 Hernandez .312 Owings .313 Webb .473 Davis .370 Hernandez .384

 

  Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League (Series even 1-1)          
Indians 0 .121 .167 .145 .433
Red Sox 0 .129 .209 .230 .567
           
National League (Rockies up 2-0)          
Rockies .473 .226 .160 .076 .936
Diamondbacks 0 0 .017 .047 .064

 

Friday October 12

We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter (Pwin)
Indians Sabathia .405 Carmona .471 Westbrook .481 Byrd .482 Sabathia .521 Carmona .471 Westbrook .365
Red Sox Beckett .595 Matsuzaka .529 Schilling .519 Wakefield .518 Beckett .479 Matsuzaka .529 Schilling .635
Rockies Francis 1 Jimenez .630 Morales .800 Fogg .562 Francis .527 Jimenez .630 Morales .728
Diamondbacks Webb 0 Davis .370 Hernandez .200 Owings .438 Webb .473 Davis .370 Hernandez .272

 

  Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League          
Indians .044 .109 .138 .113 .405
Red Sox .084 .139 .174 .197 .595
           
National League (Rockies up 1-0)          
Rockies .283 .241 .212 .147 .883
Diamondbacks 0 .015 .046 .055 .117

 

 

Wednesday October 10

We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Both series are currently 0-0

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter (Pwin)
Indians Sabathia .405 Carmona .471 Westbrook .481 Byrd .482 Sabathia .521 Carmona .471 Westbrook .365
Red Sox Beckett .595 Matsuzaka .529 Schilling .519 Wakefield .518 Beckett .479 Matsuzaka .529 Schilling .635
Rockies Francis .455 Jimenez .630 Morales .800 Fogg .562 Francis .527 Jimenez .630 Morales .728
Diamondbacks Webb .545 Davis .370 Hernandez .200 Owings .438 Webb .473 Davis .370 Hernandez .272

 Note that there isn't much data on Jimenez or Morales that I'd recommend wagering on any game with them starting on my egrandslam.com website. So the ARI-COL numbers in those games must be taken with a LARGE grain of salt.

  Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League          
Indians .044 .109 .138 .113 .405
Red Sox .084 .139 .174 .197 .595
           
National League          
Rockies .129 .191 .225 .206 .751
Diamondbacks .018 .065 .088 .077 .249

 

 

Monday October 8

Division Series Probabilities and Predictions

Team Game 1 starter Game 2 starter Game 3 starter Game 4 starter Game 5 starter
BOS - Red Sox Beckett Matsuzaka Schilling    
LAA - Angels Lackey Escobar Weaver    
CLE - Indians Sabathia Carmona Westbrook Byrd Sabathia
NYY - Yankees Wang Pettitte Clemens Mussina Wang
ARI - DBacks Webb Davis Hernandez    
CHC - Cubs Zambrano Lilly Hill    
PHI - Phils Hamels Kendrick Moyer    
COL - Rockies Francis Morales Jimenez    

For the various possible first round series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (first team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
American League          
Red Sox up 3-0 Red Sox vs. Angels - Red Sox win 1 0 0 1
  Red Sox vs. Angels - Angels win 0.0 0.0 0.0 0
Indians up 2-1 Indians vs. Yankees - Indians win 0.0 0.396 0.337 0.733
  Indians vs. Yankees - Yankees win 0.0 0.0 0.170 0.267
National League          
D'Backs won 3-0 DBacks vs. Cubs - DBacks win 1 0 0 1
  DBacks vs. Cubs - Cubs win 0 0 0 0
Rockies up 3-0 Phils vs. Rockies - Phils win 0.0 0.0 0.0 0
  Phils vs. Rockies - Rockies win 1 0 0 1

Sunday October 7

Division Series Probabilities and Predictions

Team Game 1 starter Game 2 starter Game 3 starter Game 4 starter Game 5 starter
BOS - Red Sox Beckett Matsuzaka Schilling Beckett Matsuzaka
LAA - Angels Lackey Escobar Weaver Lackey Escobar
CLE - Indians Sabathia Carmona Westbrook Byrd Sabathia
NYY - Yankees Wang Pettitte Clemens Mussina Wang
ARI - DBacks Webb Davis Hernandez    
CHC - Cubs Zambrano Lilly Hill    
PHI - Phils Hamels Kendrick Moyer Hamels Kendrick
COL - Rockies Francis Morales Jimewnez Francis Morales

For the various possible first round series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (first team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
American League          
Red Sox up 2-0 Red Sox vs. Angels - Red Sox win 0.528 0.244 0.125 0.897
  Red Sox vs. Angels - Angels win 0.0 0.0 0.113 0.113
Indians up 2-0 Indians vs. Yankees - Indians win 0.365 0.251 0.214 0.830
  Indians vs. Yankees - Yankees win 0.0 0.0 0.170 0.170
National League          
D'Backs won 3-0 DBacks vs. Cubs - DBacks win 1 0 0 1
  DBacks vs. Cubs - Cubs win 0 0 0 0
Rockies up 2-0 Phils vs. Rockies - Phils win 0.0 0.0 0.081 0.081
  Phils vs. Rockies - Rockies win 0.630 0.183 0.106 0.919

 

 

Wednesday October 3

No games have been played but some prospective matchups have changed (This is based on Yahoo expected pitchers).

Division Series Probabilities and Predictions
We had to guess some of the pitching matchups and will update as the series progress.

Team Game 1 starter Game 2 starter Game 3 starter Game 4 starter Game 5 starter
BOS - Red Sox Beckett Matsuzaka Schilling Beckett Matsuzaka
LAA - Angels Lackey Escobar Weaver Lackey Escobar
CLE - Indians Sabathia Carmona Westbrook Byrd Sabathia
NYY - Yankees Wang Pettitte Clemens Mussina Wang
ARI - DBacks Webb Davis Hernandez Owings Webb
CHC - Cubs Zambrano Lilly Hill Zambrano Lilly
PHI - Phils Hamels Kendrick Moyer Lohse Hamels
COL - Rockies Francis Redman Fogg Jimenez Francis

For the various possible first round series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (first team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
American League          
  Red Sox vs. Angels - Red Sox win 0.183 0.217 0.202 0.602
  Red Sox vs. Angels - Angels win 0.078 0.154 0.166 0.398
  Indians vs. Yankees - Indians win 0.122 0.155 0.214 0.491
  Indians vs. Yankees - Yankees win 0.113 0.227 0.170 0.509
National League          
  DBacks vs. Cubs - DBacks win 0.069 0.143 0.205 0.416
  DBacks vs. Cubs - Cubs win 0.173 0.243 0.168 0.584
  Phils vs. Rockies - Phils win 0.173 0.179 0.223 0.575
  Phils vs. Rockies - Rockies win 0.073 0.188 0.163 0.425

 

Tuesday October 2

Division Series Probabilities and Predictions
We had to guess some of the pitching matchups and will update as the series progress.

Team Game 1 starter Game 2 starter Game 3 starter Game 4 starter Game 5 starter
BOS - Red Sox Beckett Matsuzaka Schilling Beckett Matsuzaka
LAA - Angels Lackey Escobar Weaver Lackey Escobar
CLE - Indians Sabathia Carmona Westbrook Sabathia Carmona
NYY - Yankees Wang Pettitte Clemens Wang Pettitte
ARI - DBacks Webb Davis Hernandez Webb Davis
CHC - Cubs Zambrano Lilly Hill Zambrano Lilly
PHI - Phils Hamels Lohse Moyer Hamels Lohse
COL - Rockies Francis Redman Jimenez Fogg Francis

For the various possible first round series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (first team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
American League          
  Red Sox vs. Angels - Red Sox win 0.183 0.217 0.202 0.602
  Red Sox vs. Angels - Angels win 0.078 0.154 0.166 0.398
  Indians vs. Yankees - Indians win 0.122 0.172 0.229 0.524
  Indians vs. Yankees - Yankees win 0.113 0.209 0.154 0.476
National League          
  DBacks vs. Cubs - DBacks win 0.069 0.167 0.147 0.383
  DBacks vs. Cubs - Cubs win 0.173 0.208 0.235 0.617
  Phils vs. Rockies - Phils win 0.143 0.235 0.188 0.566
  Phils vs. Rockies - Rockies win 0.088 0.154 0.192 0.434