This page describes probabilities for each playoff team winning its playoff series. We also compare where available with America's Line odds from the Star-Ledger and keep a running total of how we would be doing. (for theoretical purposes only, as sports gambling is not legal in New Jersey) LAST UPDATED WEDNESDAY OCT. 20, 1999: As of Wednesday October 20 ________________________ Yanks will meet Braves in World Series Predictions coming soon. Playoff total -810. I guess postseason play doesn't reflect seasonal play so well or sample size is too small. As of Monday October 18 ________________________ Overall Braves (3-2) now have a 80.9% chance to win and Mets have 19.1% Braves in 6: 62 Mets in 6: 0 Braves in 7: 19 Mets in 7: 19 For tomorrow's game, Millwood vs Rogers Braves are -190 favorites implying Braves have 64.3-65.5% chance to win. Model says Braves have 61.5% chance. So we'll go with Mets. Mets lose -100 For tonight's Yankee game, (Hernandez vs Mercker) Yanks are -175 favorites (62.3-63.6%) Model gives 56% so we'll go with the Red Sox. Red Sox lose -100 Overall Yanks (3-1) now have a 85% chance to win and Red Sox have 15% Red Sox in 5: 0 Yankees in 5: 56 Red Sox in 6: 0 Yankees in 6: 21 Red Sox in 7: 15 Yankees in 7: 8 As of Sunday October 17 ________________________ Overall Braves (3-1) now have a 89.5% chance to win and Mets have 10.5% Braves in 5: 45 Mets in 5: 0 Braves in 6: 34 Mets in 6: 0 Braves in 7: 11 Mets in 7: 11 For tonight's game, Maddux vs Yoshii Braves are -150 favorites implying Braves have 58.3-60.0% chance to win. Model says Mets have 55% chance. So we'll go with Mets. Mets win +140. Overall Yanks (2-1) now have a 61% chance to win and Red Sox have 39% Red Sox in 5: 0 Yankees in 5: 22 Red Sox in 6: 14 Yankees in 6: 25 Red Sox in 7: 25 Yankees in 7: 14 For tonight's Yankee game, (Pettitte vs Saberhagen) Yanks are -145 favorites (57.5-59.2%) Model gives 61% for Red Sox so we'll go with the Red Sox. Red Sox lose -100. As of Friday October 15 ________________________ Overall Braves (2-0) now have a 87.9% chance to win and Mets have 36.9% Braves in 4: 24% Mets in 4: 0% Braves in 5: 28 Mets in 5: 0 Braves in 6: 23 Mets in 6: 4 Braves in 7: 13 Mets in 7: 18 For today's game, Mets are -145 favorites implying Braves have 40.8-42.6% chance to win. Model says Braves have 43.8% chance. Too close so we'll sit this game out. For tomorrow's Yankee game, Red Sox are -155 favorites Rotation has changed to Clemens vs. Martinez with 64.9% chance for Red Sox. Oddsmakers have Red Sox -155 favorite (59.2-60.8%) so we'll go with the Red Sox. Red Sox win +145. Overall Red Sox (0-2) now have a 28.6% chance to win and Yankees have 71.4% Red Sox in 4: 0% Yankees in 4: 14% Red Sox in 5: 0 Yankees in 5: 26 Red Sox in 6: 9 Yankees in 6: 21 Red Sox in 7: 19 Yankees in 7: 11 As of Thursday October 14 ________________________ Overall Braves (2-0) now have a 87.9% chance to win and Mets have 36.9% Braves in 4: 24% Mets in 4: 0% Braves in 5: 28 Mets in 5: 0 Braves in 6: 23 Mets in 6: 4 Braves in 7: 13 Mets in 7: 18 Overall Red Sox (0-1) now have a 47.9% chance to win and Yankees have 39.4% Red Sox in 4: 0% Yankees in 4: 6% Red Sox in 5: 9 Yankees in 5: 17 Red Sox in 6: 16 Yankees in 6: 18 Red Sox in 7: 23 Yankees in 7: 11 For today's games, Yanks are -210 favorites but should not be according to the model so go with Red Sox. Yanks wons lose 100, running total -795 As of Wednesday October 13 ________________________ Mets having lost game one makes probabilities: Overall Braves (1-0) now have a 77.5% chance to win and Mets have 36.9% Braves in 4: 15% Mets in 4: 0% Braves in 5: 22 Mets in 5: 4 Braves in 6: 23 Mets in 6: 8 Braves in 7: 17 Mets in 7: 10 For today's game, oddsmakes call it -220 for Braves but Mets have 38.5% chance to win and Odds says 31.2-32.2 so go with Mets. Mets lost, lose 100 For the Yankees vs. the Red Sox we have (changed rotation): Game 1 Hernandex vs. Mercker Yankees have a 57.1% chance to win Game 2 Cone vs. R. Martinez Yankees have a 48.2% chance to win Game 3 Pettitte vs. P. Martinez Yankees have a 30.9% chance to win Game 4 Clemens vs. Saberhagen Yankees have a 43.1% chance to win Game 5 Hernandex vs. Mercker Yankees have a 55.9% chance to win Game 6 Cone vs. R. Martinez Yankees have a 48.2% chance to win Game 7 Pettitte vs. P. Martinez Yankees have a 32.2% chance to win Overall Red Sox have a 60.8% chance to win and Yankees have 39.4% Red Sox in 4: 9% Yankees in 4: 4% Red Sox in 5: 13 Yankees in 5: 11 Red Sox in 6: 17 Yankees in 6: 14 Red Sox in 7: 21 Yankees in 7: 10 Yankees are -250 (70.6-71.4%) favorites but only have 57.1% chance to win so go with Red Sox, Red Sox lost, lose 100, running total -695 As of Tuesday October 12 ________________________ Although I hope the Mets win, it does not look good. As they performed during the year (Braves winning 9 of 12), it looks likely that the Braves will win the NLCS. Here's the game by game and full results: Game 1 Maddux vs. Yoshii Braves have a 51.7% chance to win Game 2 Millwood vs. Rogers Braves have a 61.5% chance to win Game 3 Glavine vs. Leiter Braves have a 43.8% chance to win Game 4 Smoltz vs. Rogers Braves have a 55.9% chance to win Game 5 averaged pitching Braves have a 55.2% chance to win Game 6 averaged pitching Braves have a 62.0% chance to win Game 7 averaged pitching Braves have a 62.0% chance to win Overall Braves have a 63.1% chance to win and Mets have 36.9% Braves in 4: 8% Mets in 4: 5% Braves in 5: 16 Mets in 5: 10 Braves in 6: 21 Mets in 6: 11 Braves in 7: 19 Mets in 7: 12 For the Yankees vs. the Red Sox we have: Game 1 Cone vs. Mercker Yankees have a 55.8% chance to win Game 2 Hernandez vs. P. Martinez Yankees have a 42.9% chance to win Game 3 Pettitte vs. Saberhagen Yankees have a 38.7% chance to win Game 4 Clemens vs. R. Martinez Yankees have a 41.5% chance to win Game 5 Cone vs. Mercker Yankees have a 54.5% chance to win Game 6 Hernandez vs. P. Martinez Yankees have a 42.9% chance to win Game 7 Pettitte vs. Saberhagen Yankees have a 39.9% chance to win Overall Red Sox have a 60.6% chance to win and Yankees have 39.4% Red Sox in 4: 9% Yankees in 4: 4% Red Sox in 5: 14 Yankees in 5: 11 Red Sox in 6: 19 Yankees in 6: 13 Red Sox in 7: 19 Yankees in 7: 12 For Game 1, the odds makers have Braves as -190 favorite so go with Mets. Mets lose, lose 100 running total -495 As of Monday Oct. 11 ____________________ Today's game: Cleveland (Nagy -170) over Boston Saberhagen (not in Star Ledger so took from http://www.scoresandodds.com/ Model gives Boston as favorite with 58% chance to win so go with Red Sox. Red Sox won. Win 160 -- running total -395 As of Sunday Oct. 10 ____________________ Today's game: Mercker (Bos) vs Wright (Cle) has Bos with 57.2% chance to win. Oddsmakers favor Cleveland with -110 so go with Boston. Boston won: +100 Running total: -565 Mets, Yanks and Braves won their series. As of Saturday Oct. 9 _____________________ Probability for Diamondbacks to beat Mets in series % (Mets up 2-1) Probability for Yankees to beat Texas in series 89.8% (Yanks up 2-0) Probability for Atlanta to beat Houston in series % (Atl up 2-1) Probability for Cleveland to beat Boston in series 87.4% (Clev. up 2-0) Today's games: Mets vs. Arizona: Leiter vs. Anderson give Mets 50.1% chance to win (even with Piazza) go with Arizona since Mets are -160 favorites. Atlanta vs. Houston: Smoltz vs. Reynolds Atlanta has 51.9% chance to win but are -125 favorites (53.5-55.6%) so go with Houston Yankees vs. Texas: Clemens vs. Loaiza Model give Texas as favorite at 54.1% but Yanks are -135 favorites so go with Texas. Cleveland vs. Boston: Cleveland is -110 favorite with Burba vs R. Martinez. Model gives Boston 58.5% chance so go with Boston. Mets won lose 100 Atlanta won lose 100 Yankees won lose 100 Boston won win 110 Running total: -665 As of Friday Oct. 8 _____________________ Probability for Diamondbacks to beat Mets in series 47.9% (Series 1-1) Probability for Yankees to beat Texas in series 89.8% (Yanks up 2-0) Probability for Atlanta to beat Houston in series 47.0% (Series 1-1) Probability for Cleveland to beat Boston in series 87.4% (Clev. up 2-0) Today's games: Mets vs. Arizona: with Reed on the mound vs. Daal, Mets have a 56.1% chance of success. Oddsmakers have (-135) 55.6-57.5% range so we wouldn't bet on this one Atlanta vs. Houston: with Glavine on the mound vs. Hampton, Houston has a 59.3% chance of success. Oddsmakers have (-140) 56.5-58.3% range which is close to ours, but we have a slight further edge for Houston so we'll go with Houston. Houston lost so we lose 140. Running total -475. As of Thursday Oct. 7 _____________________ Probability for Diamondbacks to beat Mets in series 47.9% (Series 1-1) Probability for Yankees to beat Texas in series 74.2% (Yanks up 1-0) Probability for Atlanta to beat Houston in series 47.0% (Series 1-1) Probability for Boston to beat Cleveland in series 36.0% (Clev. up 1-0) Today's games Yankee's have 49.5% chance to beat Texas (Pettite vs. Heiling) but are favored (-175) so we'll go with Texas. Boston has 58% chance to win with Nagy vs Saberhagen but paper favors Cleveland (-140) so we'll take Boston. (Yanks won, lose 100; Boston won, lose 100; running total -335) As of Wednesday Oct. 6 ______________________ Probability for Diamondbacks to beat Mets in series 28.3% (Mets up 1-0) Probability for Yankees to beat Texas in series 74.2% (Yanks up 1-0) Probability for Atlanta to beat Houston in series 33.0% (Astros up 1-0) Probability for Boston to beat Cleveland in series 58.2% (0-0) (These games take into account expected starting pitchers for first 3 games -- only first for Yankees-Texas and other games averaged the pitchers) (Odds: D'backs over Mets -140, we predict Mets should be the favorite (with prob = .538), we'll take the Mets. Braves -165 over Astros, we think Braves have 61.2% chance to win, and the -165 means 60.8% to 62.3% so we wouldn't bet on this one. Boston -140 over Cleveland, we think Boston has a 59.4% chance to win and the -140 predicts 56.5% to 58.3% so we'll go with Boston.) (Mets lost, lose 100; Boston lost, lose 140; running total -135) As of Tuesday Oct. 5 ______________________ Probability for Diamondbacks to beat Mets in series 51.4% Probability for Yankees to beat Texas in series 58.9% Probability for Atlanta to beat Houston in series 52.3% Probability for Boston to beat Cleveland in series 58.2% (These games take into account expected starting pitchers for first 3 games -- only first for Yankees-Texas and other games averaged the pitchers) (Odds: only available for Yankees-Texas Yankees favorite -175 implying Probability Yanks win of 62-64%, model gives 59% so bet on Texas. Yankees won so lose 100 -- running total +5) As of Monday Oct. 4 ___________________ Playoff game: Mets vs Reds Model gives 50.0% probability for each team (Odds from Star Ledger: Reds the favorite -115, bet Mets) Mets won +105.